What Does Kerra Seay: The presidential debate and why it doesn't matter

Header image for Interrobang article CREDIT: HILARY CLINTON; BRETT WEINSTEIN ON FLICKR (CC BY-SA 2.0), DONALD TRUMP; GAGE SKIDMORE ON FLICKR (CC BY-SA 2.0)
Candidates went head to head in the first debate for the U.S. presidential election, but will it have an impact on the final results?

Since the only interesting thing that happened in Canadian politics in the last week was when the adorable Prince George left stud-muffin Prime Minister Trudeau's high five hanging, I feel like I am forced to talk about the debate.

You know which debate I'm talking about. I'm talking about the presidential debate that took place last week between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

I'll preface this by saying I didn't even watch it. Instead, I chose to watch Scream Queens on Netflix with a glass of wine. I felt like this would probably be a much more enjoyable way to spend my time and I have no regrets.

I woke up, to my social media feeds cluttered with coverage of this hyped-up debate. From late night talk shows, to news organizations to my politically inclined friends and family, everyone had an opinion. And look at me, I'm doing the exact same thing, just throwing in my two cents worth of unoriginal political commentary that will likely have no impact on the end results. Because realistically, there is probably nothing unique or innovative I can say about this debate that someone hasn't already said. So I'm going to do my best to not waste your time or my own.

Instead I'm going to move on from this and talk about why the debate doesn't matter.

On Aug. 14, just a short 44 days before the debate, Clinton had the highest probability of winning the general election at an astounding 89.2 per cent chance opposed to Trump's 10.8 per cent chance according to the election forecasting website FiveThirtyEight. Fast forward to the day after the debate and Clinton's chances of winning were at a precarious 54.8 per cent, with Trump at 45.2 per cent according to the same website.

The election came the closest to it being a 50/50 tossup on July 31. This was a few days after the Republican National Convention (RNC) and the Democratic National Convention (DNC) finished, while Trump was still riding out the high of his fear-mongering convention speech.

It wasn't until Trump began making disparaging comments about the Khan family, the parents of a Muslim soldier who had died serving his country that the tide began to turn in favour of Clinton.

In just one day, from July 31 to Aug. 1, Clinton's chances jumped from 50.1 per cent to 64.8 per cent and steadily rose until she hit her mid-August high of a near 90 per cent chance of winning.

But in the subsequent 44 days, Clinton managed to lose the lead significantly. But it's not even because she did anything wrong per se, it's just because Trump didn't say anything particularly disastrous.

At this point, I don't think there's anything Clinton can do on her own to increase her chances. She just has to hope that Trump goofs again as severely as he did with the Khan family or she may be out of luck.

And unfortunately for her, even though she won that debate in the eyes of voters (62 per cent according to a CNN poll) she still may lose the election to a racist, xenophobic and sexist orangutan.

From the day after the debate, there are only 43 more days until this goddamn election is over with for good. And for the love of God, Hillary. Please. Figure it out.

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