The cost of violence

Dear Editor:

Nine trillion dollars (USD): the estimated size of the economic impact we could experience, had the world been completely peaceful in 2011. While the world has been recently reported to have become more peaceful for the first time since 2009, according to the Global Peace Index in 2011, it is hard to ignore how much of the job is left to be done. From a Canadian perspective, a rise in the rankings to being identified as the fourth most peaceful country globally is a positive sign, leaving only Iceland, Denmark and New Zealand ahead of us. However, the index, published by the Institute for Economics and Peace, brings to light far more than the relative rankings of these countries in terms of their peacefulness: it signifies the cost of violence.

Let's put this into perspective: how large is the potential impact of a completely peaceful world? Some of the largest threats on a global scale include climate change, poverty and economic instability. The estimated $9 trillion USD is reported to be equivalent to the size of the German and Japanese economies combined, the former ranked as having the fifth-largest gross domestic product and the latter having the third-largest GDP globally in terms of purchasing power parity as of 2012. Furthermore, $9 trillion is easily able to cover the entire amount allocated to deal with the European sovereign debt crisis with the European Financial Stability Facility.

Insight into the imbalance in resource allocation between violent ends and those striving for peace restoration highlights a significant area of concern as well. Encompassing over 190 Member States, the United Nations provides an international forum and promotes progress in human rights and living standards through various programs and funds. The Millennium Development Goals also falls under the United Nations, and encompasses various global challenges including the establishment of universal primary education, the halving of extreme poverty levels and prevention of the spread of HIV/AIDS by 2015. The regular budget of the organization of the U.N. is reported to be nearly $1.9 billion annually. Drawing approximately half of its annual total expenditure from voluntary contributions of its Member States, its annual expenditure of $15 billion on peacekeeping missions, programs, funds and specialized agencies are able to be covered by annual world military expenditures of $1 trillion would pay for the U.N. system for 67 years! A quick calculation on the potential impact of a complete reduction in violence yields staggering results as well: over 600 years of the U.N. system's expenditures are covered with $9 trillion.

It's evident that a reduction in violence carries with it an economic impact of great significance, but bringing an end to violence on a global scale does not happen overnight. The first step to embracing a peaceful world, however, is realizing how much of it is left to unlock and explore by fuelling efforts to live in harmony rather than to live apart. While a 100 per cent reduction might be a mile away, even a 25 per cent reduction in violence is reported to have an estimated economic impact of $2.25 trillion. We might be ranked as fourth most peaceful as a nation, but the paradox lies in our obliviousness to how, as a planet, we are losing exactly what we're fighting over. Knowing the impact of our actions is the first step to changing perspectives globally on nurturing a united world and making change happen; after all, every domino effect begins with a single domino.

Arnav Agarwal
McMaster University

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