Hockey for math geeks
Are sporting outcomes determined
by chance, or by a series of
complicated metrics? This is the
geeky question that has been posed
in the film Moneyball, based off
the bestselling book of the same
name by Michael Lewis.
In Moneyball, Billy Beane, general manager of the Oakland Athletics, attempts to build a competitive baseball team on a budget by using scientific scouting. Scientific scouting employs complicated metrics and algorithms known as sabermetrics, pioneered by stats geek Bill James, to determine who the most undervalued ballplayers are. Sabermetrics attempt to measure every tiny little performance of every player in a baseball game, breaking each game's event down into what are essentially mathematical probabilities.
This sort of statistical geekiness has gained popularity mostly in baseball, as evidenced by the success of Moneyball (both the book and movie). But this concept has been exported to other sports, including hockey. A number of websites have been created by super-fans and statisticians to focus solely on complex hockey metrics, alternatives to traditional statistics such as goals, assists, points and goaltender goalsagainst- average. The stats proffered by these websites attempt to break the game of hockey down into a series of individual events with mathematical outcomes. Considering the speed and flow of a single game of hockey, this is not a simple task.
One of these websites is behindthenet.ca, run by Queen's University grad Gabriel Desjardins. Behind the Net describes itself as "the first site to break player performance down for every man-advantage (5v5, 5v4, 4v5, etc.) and to statistically measure the Quality of Competition that players face when they're on the ice. In addition, we track advanced statistics such as On-Ice Shot Differential, Faceoff Zone Starts and On-Ice Shooting and Save Percentage." For stats geeks, it's hockey heaven. For everyone else, it's a bit complicated, so I'll try to give a couple of clear examples.
Take, for example, the statistic known as With Or Without You (WOWY). Describing this stat, behindthenet.ca states that it looks at what happens to a team's goals for and goals against when a player is in the line-up as opposed to when he is out of the line-up. The idea is to measure statistically the effect a single player has on the outcome of a game. Another example is Wins Above Replacement (WAR), which sets a replacement level for a goaltender's save percentage and then determines how much higher a goalie is above that save percentage in both five-on-five even strength and five-on-four penalty kill situations. The idea here is similar to WOWY, to measure how much a single goalie contributes to a team's win.
The metrics can get pretty complicated. They're stuff for sports geeks. And stats geeks, too. As Professor John Frink said in an episode of The Simpsons that was about sabermetrics in baseball, "Baseball is a sport played by the dextrous, but understood only by the poindextrous." It seems that the same could be true for any sport, hockey included.
In Moneyball, Billy Beane, general manager of the Oakland Athletics, attempts to build a competitive baseball team on a budget by using scientific scouting. Scientific scouting employs complicated metrics and algorithms known as sabermetrics, pioneered by stats geek Bill James, to determine who the most undervalued ballplayers are. Sabermetrics attempt to measure every tiny little performance of every player in a baseball game, breaking each game's event down into what are essentially mathematical probabilities.
This sort of statistical geekiness has gained popularity mostly in baseball, as evidenced by the success of Moneyball (both the book and movie). But this concept has been exported to other sports, including hockey. A number of websites have been created by super-fans and statisticians to focus solely on complex hockey metrics, alternatives to traditional statistics such as goals, assists, points and goaltender goalsagainst- average. The stats proffered by these websites attempt to break the game of hockey down into a series of individual events with mathematical outcomes. Considering the speed and flow of a single game of hockey, this is not a simple task.
One of these websites is behindthenet.ca, run by Queen's University grad Gabriel Desjardins. Behind the Net describes itself as "the first site to break player performance down for every man-advantage (5v5, 5v4, 4v5, etc.) and to statistically measure the Quality of Competition that players face when they're on the ice. In addition, we track advanced statistics such as On-Ice Shot Differential, Faceoff Zone Starts and On-Ice Shooting and Save Percentage." For stats geeks, it's hockey heaven. For everyone else, it's a bit complicated, so I'll try to give a couple of clear examples.
Take, for example, the statistic known as With Or Without You (WOWY). Describing this stat, behindthenet.ca states that it looks at what happens to a team's goals for and goals against when a player is in the line-up as opposed to when he is out of the line-up. The idea is to measure statistically the effect a single player has on the outcome of a game. Another example is Wins Above Replacement (WAR), which sets a replacement level for a goaltender's save percentage and then determines how much higher a goalie is above that save percentage in both five-on-five even strength and five-on-four penalty kill situations. The idea here is similar to WOWY, to measure how much a single goalie contributes to a team's win.
The metrics can get pretty complicated. They're stuff for sports geeks. And stats geeks, too. As Professor John Frink said in an episode of The Simpsons that was about sabermetrics in baseball, "Baseball is a sport played by the dextrous, but understood only by the poindextrous." It seems that the same could be true for any sport, hockey included.
