Premier League Ponderings: Who's going down?

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Dimitar Berbatov’s transfer to Monaco has left Fulham in trouble.

While the majority of my column has been devoted to the title race in England, the Premier League provides fans with a second race that is often much more exciting, and moreso this season than any other. A key difference in the European sports structure is the concept of relegation, essentially a demotion to a lower league for the bottom three teams in the league — picture if the bottom three team in the NHL were dropped into the AHL at the end of each season.

A drop from the Premier League can have huge ramifications for a club; they lose status, their best players are often signed by teams remaining at the top level, and they could stand to lose millions of dollars in television revenue that comes from playing the best teams in the country. Previous giants of the game such as Leeds United and Nottingham Forest have found themselves stuck in the Championship, having been unable to make the return to the Premier League and finding it harder to do so each year.

For many clubs in the top flight, avoiding relegation is the paramount concern at the beginning of a season, lower-ranked teams such as Fulham or Stoke City know that they have no real chance of winning the title against the like of Manchester City and Chelsea, and must look to compete with the rest of the bottom half of the table to avoid the drop out of the international spotlight.

With only six points separating 19th place from 10th, almost half the league is still in mathematical danger of relegation, but there are a few teams that, barring the strangest sequence of events, should pull away and find themselves still at the top level next season. Conversely, there are three teams that I cannot see being safe at the end of the year:

Fulham F.C.
The London club is currently propping up the table in 20th place, and are the only bottom half club sitting outside of the six-point window that separates the rest. Having loaned out both Bryan Ruiz and Dimitar Berbatov during January, I don't see who is going to score the goals that will bring them to safety, as their only replacement was to bring back Clint Dempsey for a temporary stint during the U.S. offseason. Remaining matches against Liverpool, Chelsea, and both Manchester clubs are unlikely to yield any points and a repeat of 2008's “great escape” seems impossible.

Crystal Palace F.C.
Another London club that is unlikely to be at the top level next year, the league newcomers have looked to be in over their heads ever since their return in August. A change of management has already occurred at the club, and while Tony Pulis did wonders to keep Stoke City up as long as he did, he plays a very specific, physical game that requires a team of giant men — something he does not have here. No player has scored more than five goals this season, and a drastic improvement will be required for safety to be achieved.

Norwich City
This one is a bit of a toss-up, as Norwich has a fairly talented squad and a competent manager, but a number of off-field issues coupled with erratic performances lead me to believe that the Canaries will be in the Championship again next year. When one of your best players tells the media, “this is a fuckin' shit club,” it's clear to the world that there are issues behind the scenes, and all too often these wind up influencing the performance of the squad. No player this season has really looked capable of helping the team, and they are still reeling from the loss of Grant Holt with none of the new players having been able to fill his goal scoring boots.