The battle of the budget

Header image for Interrobang article CREDIT: NDP
Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horwath could trigger an election in the province.

A new hospital is being built in Niagara Falls thanks to a $26 million investment by the provincial government. On an unrelated note, there are just a couple of weeks until the February 13 by-election in Niagara Falls.

On January 15, Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne announced by-elections for the ridings of Niagara Falls and Thornhill. The Liberal Party claims that the hospital funding had been in the works for months, but either way the timing was tremendously convenient. Practically speaking, the results will have little impact on business at Queen's Park, but the election will be a valuable indicator of Ontarians' opinion of the provincial government.

The Ontario Liberals present their 2014 budget next month at Queen's Park in Toronto, and the opposition parties will have an opportunity to vote against it, thereby triggering a provincial election. NDP leader Andrea Horwath chose to support Premier Wynne last fall, despite the $1.1 billion gas plant scandal that followed on the heels of a contract war between teachers unions and the provincial government. The NDP has a decisive 20 seats in the provincial legislature, holding the balance of power. This balancing act has gotten them concessions from the Liberal government on a range of issues from taxation to provincial spending watchdogs, but Horwath has to decide whether the time is right to strike out on her own. Under Horwath's watch, the NDP has steadily taken ground in Ontario, but she risks losing the support of her constituents if she can't do more than beg for scraps at the Liberal table.

Conservative leader Tim Hudak has made it no secret that he intends to vote down the 2014 budget in favour of more focused fiscal responsibility and economic growth. The catch-22 is that if the NDP votes down the budget, Horwath could have a shot at the big seat. Conversely, if the NDP doesn't think it can win a majority, it could support the budget and enjoy consideration from the provincial government going forward. Given the tone of his campaign since 2013, Hudak can't feasibly hold leverage over the NDP by threatening to pass the budget, or he would lose all credibility. With a respectable 36 of the 107 seats in Queen's Park filled by Conservatives, Hudak is poised to capitalize on the woe-begotten Liberals.

The budget is typically voted on in late June, but with the by-election only a couple weeks off, the provincial party leaders will be in the Thornhill and Niagara Falls ridings to pick up as much support as possible. Their increased presence is sure to produce new campaign promises and, if history is any indicator, the promise of more goodies from the government.

Promising government funding is a classic tactic used by every government, but if the Liberals fail to recapture the seat in Niagara Falls it could be an indicator that the people of the riding don't expect a Liberal government in Queen's Park much longer.

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