A chance for the NDP in Ontario

Header image for Interrobang article CREDIT: CANADIAN PRESS
Andrea Horwath is provincial queenmaker.

The Ontario NDP Party has found themselves in a position where they can seize a lot of power if they play their cards right. With a newly elected premier, the odds are high that an election will happen in mid-February when the Ontario Legislature resumes. Should that be the case, Ontarians will be faced with a choice between two or three parties that are miles apart on a lot of issues. When this happened in Quebec, the NDP moved in and decimated the Bloc Quebecois, lowering their seat count to the point of not being an official party and scooping up 58 of the 75 seats in Quebec. The obvious distinction is that this would be a provincial election, not federal, but the principal still applies.

The Liberal Party is currently undergoing a crisis of public opinion and Ontario PC leader Tim Hudak for one has been taking full advantage. In late December, Hudak spoke amidst protestors at the LCBO on York Street in downtown London to outline how he would let the private sector engage in the sale and distribution of alcohol under government regulation. The NDP, on the other hand, has been playing the moderate card with leader Andrea Horwath saying she's willing to work with anyone who will to come to the table. Regardless of how the drama unfolds, Horwath stands to gain in several regards.

Despite having the fewest members of provincial parliament, the NDP Party of Ontario will decide whether there will be an election. To have a majority in Ontario requires at least 54 seats in the Ontario Legislature, and Kathleen Wynne's Liberals have 53. The Ontario Conservative party has made much noise declaring they won't support the new Premier, but without the 18 votes held by Horwath's NDP, making noise is all they can do.

Leading up to the introduction of the new premier in the Legislature, Horwath and the newly elected Kathleen Wynne will undoubtedly meet to discuss mutual interests. If Wynne can get the support of the NDP, she'll be able to move legislation far more quickly and Horwath will have some input on decision making. If Horwath decides that she could fare better in an election, she could play up anxieties about the direction of the Ontario Liberal Party and work with the Conservatives to vote down the government. In that scenario, Horwath can claim she had no interest in an election and deflect much of the blame onto Hudak, who has left no doubts that he wants one.

Part of the McGuinty/Wynne/Liberal government's plan is to offset the provincial deficit by building an additional 29 gaming facilities. In stark contrast to that, Hudak wants to allow for wine and beer to be sold in corner stores and eliminate the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Commission.

The polarized nature of the parties in the Ontario Legislature is somewhat troubling. Since the elected party still only represents a small portion of the total population, a platform of radical change is dangerous. The Federal paradigm illustrates that point well as Stephen Harper continues to make decisions that have angered groups from every walk of Canadian life.

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