CREDIT: ECONOMICCLUB.CA
Sandra Pupatello Ontario Liberal frontrunner?

The Liberal Party is counting down the days until November 23, 2012. That's the final day for political hopefuls to jump in the ring and square off against each other for Premier Dalton McGuinty's recently vacated position. The provincial Liberal Party has been in power for nine years under his leadership and several leaders on the provincial level are looking to step in. Three of the most formidable candidates are sure to be former Liberal Party member Sandra Pupatello, Education Minister Glen Murray and, returning from a six-year stint at the federal level, Gerard Kennedy.

Before addressing the merits of these individuals, it's worth noting how the provincial party's leader will be selected. Members of the Liberal Party are eligible to cast a vote for one of the candidates on January 26 when the convention will be held in Toronto. Those in attendance vote for their candidate of choice and the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated. The process is repeated until there are two candidates remaining, and the final round of voting determines the provincial leader.

One of the fundamental errors that contributed to McGuinty's fall was his introduction of Bill C-115. It will be key for the new leader to immediately establish his or her position on Bill C-115 because of its divisive nature. On this front, Kennedy has a valid argument to make, namely that he's been uninvolved at the provincial level for a number of years and therefore can't be blamed for the current debacle. He seems to be in a sweet spot where he's capable of running for party leadership without being conversely tarnished by that same party's reputation.

The Ontario Minister of Training Colleges and Universities, Murray, also has a lot to offer the powerful teachers' unions in Ontario. His ongoing work in transforming the face of education hasn't gone unnoticed and he's going to pick up a lot of support from that sector; the remainder will depend on how successful a campaign he's able to run.

If it were possible to pick a front-runner at this stage, it would be former Liberal Minister Pupatello. Besides her popularity as a cabinet minister under McGuinty, she's also married to the former Liberal leader of Newfoundland and Labrador, Jim Bennett. While Murray could be seen as having been party to McGuinty's Bill C-115 and Kennedy has failed to be present provincially in recent years, Pupatello has the benefit of having been employed in the private sector for the last 12 months and has avoided political ill will.

The inherent challenge that the incoming provincial leader will face is how to take the party in a new direction without abandoning the legacy of the last nine years. While McGuinty introduced a lot of unpopular legislation in the past year, he was able to win three elections despite having to break some of his most adamant election promises, but it's unlikely that his replacement will get the same leeway.
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